The forecasts of industry analysts regarding the future of the energy market look optimistic, at the same time, upon closer examination it turns out that in order to achieve such results, you will have to work hard.

Cui bono?

As noted by ICSI analyst Natalia Churkina, forecasts for the demand for natural gas in the world for the long term sound very diverse.

"Thus, according to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, the demand for natural gas will practically not change by 2050. And according to the main scenario of the US Energy Information Administration, natural gas consumption will grow by 29% by 2050 compared to 2022. Gazprom's forecast is close to this figure. At the same time, according to various other scenarios of the American Energy Information Administration, the spread of figures for the growth rate of gas consumption by 2050 ranges from 11% to 57%," the expert notes.

According to her, such a spread is explained not only by the long-term planning period, but also by the peculiarity of the resource itself.

"On the one hand, natural gas is a burned type of fuel and one of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions, which harms the climate, and individual countries may gradually abandon it. not only with a long-term planning period, but also with the peculiarity of the resource itself. On the other hand, natural gas is the cleanest source of energy of all types of fuels burned, and a number of countries will replace coal with gas. In this regard, it is extremely difficult to predict the policy of a large number of countries regarding gas consumption in the next 30 years," Churkina explains.

However, the degree of optimism also depends on who exactly makes the forecast, says Sergey Kapitonov, an analyst at the Skoltech Energy Transition Project Center. That is, in the language of Cicero: "Who benefits from this?".

Today, the world consumes about 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Gazprom estimates that the bar will rise to 5 trillion by 2050. Positive, but not to say very ambitious. For example, the forecast of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries sees 5.5 trillion cubic meters in the same beautiful place.

"If we take the estimates of the International Energy Agency, which mainly defends the interests of renewable energy, then the forecasts there are more modest: in the scenario of current policies, stagnation is expected by the 50th year - demand will be about 4 trillion cubic meters, maybe a little more. In more ambitious [in terms of reduction] scenarios, for example, in those belonging to countries that have committed themselves to climate commitments, demand will decrease to about 2.5 trillion by 2050," Kapitonov lists.

And if you look at the scenario in which the world economy wants to reach the "Net zero" indicators, then demand there falls fourfold (in a quarter of a century) — up to 1 trillion cubic meters.

It turns out that to whom what seems to be the best option is predicted. 

However, "it will come true- it will not come true" depends not only on the aspirations of economic agents, but also on political vicissitudes. Which, unfortunately, often run counter to economic, and even just common sense.

"Gazprom's forecast is correct in terms of the standard conditions of the global market and its demand dynamics, however, if some players use sanctions and military levers as instruments of unfair competition, gas consumption due to a reduction in the production of goods may be at the level of up to 20% growth by 2050," says PhD, Associate professor Alexander Arsky, Faculty of Economics, RUDN.

As they say, analysts assume, but politicians have.

The weather whispers

However, experts proceed from quite incalculable factors, on the basis of which they make forecasts. 

One of these introductory issues is the climate agenda. During the round table, Gazprom's representative drew attention to the fact that natural gas is not only one of the cheapest, but also one of the most environmentally friendly fuels.

According to Oleg Abelev, Head of the analytical department of IC RIKOM-TRUST, PhD in Economics, in the foreseeable future, most of the largest consumers will reduce the share of hydrocarbons in their energy balance. And gas turns out to be in a more advantageous position than the notorious "black gold".

"The use of oil as a source of electricity generation has a much more detrimental impact on the environment than the use of gas for these purposes. When refining oil, there are always associated broad fractions of hydrocarbons. When disposing of gas, there are practically none. Taking into account the use of oil and gas, it is also necessary to understand that these are different markets from the point of view of consumers. The main consumers of hydrocarbons are energy installations, and the range of gas consumers is much wider (energy facilities, industry, as well as households)," Abelev notes.

As Alexander Arsky notes, the growth in the consumption of mainline and liquefied natural gas will also be due to the growth of the world's population.

"But the direct correlation of the number of gas consumers with its volumes is not the only pattern in this case. It is also natural that the average consumer demands more and more everyday goods and more and more food. Gas is used not only as fuel, but also as a raw material for the synthesis of plastics and fertilizers, and the consumption of these components is growing year by year," the expert argues.

Who needs gas?

Of course, on the scale of the global economy, it is more logical to talk not about gas consuming industries, but about countries and even continents at once. Moreover, logistics largely determines the economic feasibility and the final result. Russian exporters have already seen this by restructuring their sales chains. So, to whom will natural gas producers (and the Russian Federation is not the only one) sell it?

"The forecast for gas consumption is as follows: gas consumption will increase in all economies, but its more intensive and larger growth will accompany the economies of China, India and Southeast Asia, where industrial production from the United States and the European Union will continue to migrate," Alexander Arsky believes.

According to experts, there is little hope for Europe — it is expected to reduce demand. And in North America, despite the current shale boom, indicators are likely to stagnate, including for environmental reasons. Although here, again, much will be determined by the political will of the country's leadership.

However, gas exporters will not live in a single Asia.

"Africa. It has a very low starting position — now all the countries of this continent consume less than 200 billion cubic meters of gas — half as much as Russia. But it is expected that over the next 20-30 years, this demand will at least double. There should be some positive dynamics in Latin America," Sergei Kapitonov believes.

"You don't go there, you go here."

In general, there are potential growth points all over the world. But will Russia be able to reach them and rise on the wave? Or will he watch someone else's dispersal from the shore? Here the opinions of experts differ. 

"Russia's prospects in the global market depend on a large number of factors. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in particular, Russia's share of global natural gas production will decrease from 15% in 2022 to 14% in 2050. But, given Russia's first place in gas reserves in the world and the high role of political factors in the energy market, it is obvious that the real figures may deviate greatly from any forecasts," says Natalia Churkina, an analyst at ICSI.

According to Oleg Abelev, Russia plays a key role in the gas market regardless of sanctions: "In terms of gas reserves (unlike Qatar and Iran), Russia remains one of the largest gas powers in the world. Qatar produces liquefied natural gas, while Iran produces conventional gas. Russia produces both types of gas. Given its transatlantic location, Russia occupies an advantageous intermediary position between the West and the East. And thanks to this position, he can earn money."

Alexander Arsky, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economics of the RUDN University, also believes that Russia has many potential vectors for further movement: "Russia, as the largest exporter of gas (both mainline and liquefied), will find new consumers (projects with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia in 2023), and will develop the already established "mainline" relations with China and Turkey. After the "recovery" of the European political establishment, the reanimation of the Nord Stream — 1, 2 projects is possible, although now they are skeptical about it."

As Sergey Kapitonov, an analyst at the Skoltech Energy Transition Project Center, notes, it is logical to introduce ambitious goals into any forecast, scenario or strategy. That is, so that Russia's role in the gas market, at least, does not decrease. On the other hand, any such scenario should be tested in terms of its adequacy in the current situation.

"The adequacy lies in the fact that the page of gas cooperation with Europe has been turned over. All that Russia can count on in the coming years in the European gas market is the role of a balancing supplier. That is, during periods of high demand in winter," the expert believes.

With this version of reasoning, Asia remains. And first of all, China, with which direct contact has been established.

The Power of Siberia gas pipeline has been built and is reaching its design capacity. The Far Eastern gas supply route from Sakhalin will be implemented. But with the Power of Siberia — 2 project, everything is not so simple.

"In fact, we still need to work very well on this project from the point of view of Russian gas diplomacy, because China's gas balance, in principle, is not so limitless. In China, its own production has been growing at a successful pace, by 5% per year in the last seven to eight years. They have contracted large volumes in the form of LNG, including from the United States, and pipeline gas from Central Asia. That is, there is not much room left for new gas projects from Russia, and much will depend on the flexibility of our pricing policy, on energy diplomacy," Kapitonov emphasizes.

In addition to China, in his opinion, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam will show an increase in demand. But in this case we are talking primarily about LNG. And this is already a challenge for Russia.

"In order for us to reach there, we need to create production. Accordingly, it is necessary to respond to all the existential challenges that have been exposed in connection with the entry of Arctic LNG 2 into the US SDN list. Will Russia be able to respond to these challenges and launch a project this year? In this case, it will probably be possible to count on an increase in the share of the Russian Federation in the world market," says an analyst at the Skoltech Energy Transition Project Center, "If Russia does not cope with the task of import substitution, with the establishment of exports under sanctions, we will have to forget about increasing our country's share in the world market. And the main newsmaker will be the United States with its natural gas."

We gasify non-gasified

During the round table of the Duma Committee on Energy, the representative of Gazprom also highlighted the increase in gas volumes on the domestic market as one of the priorities. And first of all, the development of gasification.

Actually, not so long ago, the head of the gas giant, Alexey Miller, said that by 2030 the president's task of achieving 100 percent gasification in the country would be completed.

The question, I must say, is painful, standing no longer even an edge, but a sword of Damocles hanging over the same housing and communal services complex.

"The problem of gasification roams from decade to decade, and is aggravated by the need to connect not only existing households, but also millions of square meters of housing stock, which is being commissioned with annual records," Alexander Arsky notes.

However, today blue fuel is designed to provide answers to new challenges — economic ones. But will this plan work?

"It is clear that the domestic market has a large unsatisfied demand. The main thing is that the cost of gas in the domestic and foreign markets differs. If the price is equalized, then the domestic demand for gasification will not be as significant as Gazprom expects," Oleg Abelev emphasizes.

In addition, as Sergey Kapitonov notes, you should not expect a miracle from the domestic market. Today, the volume of consumption in the country is about 460 billion cubic meters, and this level has not changed for about 5 years, significant volumes have not increased. Of course, there is a prospect of growth due to gasification, the transfer of boiler houses from coal to gas in the "coal" regions. But all this, according to the expert, will give about 20-30 billion cubic meters of growth. As a result, consumption at the level of about 500 billion cubic meters per year is an adequate target. Which, however, will not replace exports.

"In addition, you need to understand that gasification should not be an end in itself — there are alternative gas supply options, in some regions it is generally more logical to use renewable energy sources. Moreover, the price issue is very acute today. And the answer to it should be rational, because gas is a strategic advantage of our economy, and if it becomes unaffordable, this advantage will decrease," Sergei Kapitonov sums up.